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Saturday, September 8, 2018

Tropical Cyclone Florence



BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 54.3W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 54.3 West.  Florence is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.  A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected by the middle of next week.  On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday
and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern U.S. coast on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts, but Florence is likely to restrengthen to a hurricane by
tonight.  Rapid intensification is expected to start on Sunday, and
Florence is forecast to be a major hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and will
reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. 

Key Messages:

1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the
southeast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct
impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in
track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those
impacts.

2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north
Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress
of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and
follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Large swells are affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect
portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in
life-threatening surf and rip currents. 

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