One year ago today, (Oct. 22, 2012) I published the below post on this site advising that a just formed Tropical Depression (#18) had formed in the Central Caribbean and was expected to strengthen into a Tropical Storm named "Sandy" and that the initial, long range computer models, were indicating that it could prove to be a problem for our area and that " while uncertainty exists with future Sandy's final destination, this is a storm that should be monitored closely by all Broad Channel residents."
Tropical Depression 18 formed in the central Caribbean earlier today and should strengthen into Tropical Storm Sandy by Tuesday. Forecast scenarios for Tropical Storm Sandy and its final destination range from bypassing the East Coast to creating a nightmare for millions of people.
Multiple forecast models are confident the future tropical storm will head northward through Thursday, spreading flooding rain across Jamaica, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas.
How this soon to be Tropical Storm Sandy tracks Friday and beyond is dependent on several weather factors, which at this time are very complex and creating solutions that range from a tropical nightmare to a miss for the East Coast.
The worst case scenario for the East Coast involves future Sandy paralleling the coast from Florida to the Carolinas this weekend before being drawn inland into the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week. A quick check of tide tables for our area indicate that early next week we will be experiencing 6 foot tides at the time Sandy arrives in our area should these forecast models prove accurate.Not only would destructive winds and widespread flooding rain accompany future Sandy onshore, but a significant storm surge would unfold near and northeast of Sandy's center.
The above forecast model is far from set in stone. There is an equal possibility that the jet stream will sweep east fast enough to offer the East Coast protection from future Tropical Storm Sandy.
Yet another solution would spare the East Coast of a direct hit but would still bring future Sandy close enough to graze the coastline with adverse impacts.
The bottom line is that while uncertainty exists with future Sandy's final destination, this is a storm that should be monitored closely by all Broad Channel residents.
We will keep you updated of the progress of this storm.
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Monday
October 22, 2013
"This storm bears watching...."
Tropical Depression 18 formed in the central Caribbean earlier today and should strengthen into Tropical Storm Sandy by Tuesday. Forecast scenarios for Tropical Storm Sandy and its final destination range from bypassing the East Coast to creating a nightmare for millions of people.
The above forecast model is far from set in stone. There is an equal possibility that the jet stream will sweep east fast enough to offer the East Coast protection from future Tropical Storm Sandy.
We will keep you updated of the progress of this storm.
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