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Saturday, January 23, 2016

Let's All Just Calm Down - The sky is not falling!

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I have been reading a  myriad of posts on facebook and twitter similar to those below wherein people appear to be under the impression that the coastal flooding accompanying this winter nor'easter will be similar to that experienced by Broad Channel during Hurricanes Irene and Sandy.


"Tonight is going to be the real challenge. Was hearing this morning tide would be like the 1st morning tide of Sandy and the nighttime one would be close to the nighttime one of Sandy"

"I have so much anxiety right now. Will begin to carry whatever I can from the first floor to the second floor. Praying for all my Channel neighbors and friends."


This morning's high tide in Broad Channel at 7:30 had an astronomical height of 6.1 feet.  The forecasted total water level for this tide was  8+ feet.  The tide peaked at 7:37 a.m. and was totally unremarkable insofar as historical winter season nor'easter tidal street flooding in Broad Channel goes.  Similar to Irene or Sandy?  Definitely not!

This evening's 8 pm high tide has an astronomical height of  5.3 feet (almost 1 foot less than the morning high tide) with a forecasted total water level of almost 9 feet. 

Neither of these high tides and accompanying tidal flooding has or will rise to the the damaging levels of Sandy.  

Sandy was a huge, slow moving, storm that had days to push a wall of water (storm surge) up the coast before turning inland on October 29th, 2012.  

Once you dig down through all the media hype, "Winter Storm Jonas" is just a  big old regular nor'easter with lots of snow and wind.  That's what nor'easters do!

Below is the latest coastal flood warning data for this evening;s high tide on Jamaica Bay from the National Weather Service. 

Please note that this evening's coastal flooding is forecast to be "moderate" and not "major"  There is a big difference!.



...SOUTH SHORE BAYS WATER LEVELS FOR THIS EVENING... 
 
JAMAICA BAY NY........807 PM.....8.5-9.0/.............MODERATE.
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS DUE TO THE
HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION. NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES
ARE NEEDED. LIVES MAY BE AT RISK FOR PEOPLE WHO PUT THEMSELVES IN
HARMS WAY. ISOLATED STRUCTURAL DAMAGE MAY BE OBSERVED.

MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS CONSIDERED SEVERE ENOUGH TO CAUSE AT
LEAST SCATTERED STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING
OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS.  SOME VULNERABLE
HOMES MAY BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. EVACUATION OF SOME
NEIGHBORHOODS MAY BE NECESSARY.

Everyone, take a big deep breath and calm down.  Grab a cup of tea or coffee, turn on NETFLIX and binge watch your favorite show until your eyes hurt.  




3 comments:

  1. Or come to Dakota and play in the snow with me!!!!

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  2. OMG Thank you for that Pete !!! I had to calm down the construction men yesterday, they were telling me that everyone was claiming this to be worse than Sandy. I think we all have PTSDS-post traumatic stress disorder Sandy ! Most of us have 20 years plus of NorEasters, We can do this!

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