Information presently available indicates that it is likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop in the Pacific this summer and fall which usually portends a much less active Atlantic Hurricane season. There is a body of scientific evidence which indicates that an El Nino increases wind shear in the atmosphere above the Tropical Atlantic Basin which, along with dry air, limits the formation and strengthening of Tropical Cyclones.
What you will read and hear in the coming days is that it is anticipated that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons in some time. A below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean is also projected.
Why issue extended-range forecasts for seasonal hurricane activity?
After Hurricanes Irene (2011) and especially Sandy (2012), people in our neck of the woods are extremely curious to know how active the upcoming season is likely to be. These forecasts are issued not only to satisfy the curiosity of the general public but, more importantly, to focus attention on the problems and damage that can accompany a strong Tropical Storm or Hurricane. After Sandy, I think those of us here in Broad Channel are already keenly aware of that little factoid.
That being said, everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict a specific season’s hurricane activity.
One must remember that these extended range forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which preceded comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past may provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons but, after all is said and done, these seasonal forecasts are based on statistical schemes which, owing to their intrinsically probabilistic nature, will fail in some years.
Moreover, these forecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike. The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is.
Despite the forecast for below-average activity for the upcoming 2015 Atlantic Basin Hurricane season, keep in mind that it only takes one strong storm making landfall in our area to make it an "active" season for us.
We should all prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
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