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Sunday, October 28, 2012

Updated Coastal Flood Warning

Event:Coastal Flood Warning
Alert:
...LIFE THREATENING COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH 
TUESDAY MORNING... 
 
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 
3 PM EDT TUESDAY... 
 
* LOCATIONS...ALONG NEW YORK HARBOR...NEWARK BAY...THE ARTHUR 
KILL...THE TIDALLY AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE HACKENSACK AND 
PASSAIC RIVERS...LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN 
SHORES OF LONG ISLAND...AND TIDALLY AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE 
HUDSON AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS. 
 
* TIDAL DEPARTURES...BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES 
TONIGHT DURING HIGH TIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES...3 TO 4.5 
FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MONDAY MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR 6 
TO 11 FT ABOVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER END 
OF THE RANGE RELEGATED TO THE NEW YORK HARBOR...WESTERN LONG 
ISLAND SOUND AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS. 
 
* HIGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION...BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO 
BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT ALONG OCEAN FACING SHORELINES BY LATE 
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE DESTRUCTIVE WAVES ON TOP OF THE 
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO COASTAL 
INFRASTRUCTURE NEAREST TO SEA LEVEL. AT THE SAME TIME...5 TO 10 
FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN 
FACING PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...PECONIC BAY...AND NEW 
YORK HARBOR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND 
WASHOVERS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE FELT FOR FIRE ISLAND 
COMMUNITIES SUCH AS FAIR HARBOR...OCEAN BEACH...CHERRY 
GROVE...FIRE ISLAND PINES AND DAVIS PARK. 
 
* TIMING...MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY 
WITH THE HIGH TIDES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE 
COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY BY THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. 
MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING...POSSIBLY TO RECORD LEVELS...IS LIKELY 
DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MODERATE TO MAJOR 
COASTAL FLOODING IN POSSIBLE INTO THE TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY 
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES CYCLE. 
 
* IMPACTS...A LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH 
MINOR COASTAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH 
TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON MONDAY...WITH 
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING FLOODING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY 
TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE COASTAL STORM 
WILL DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLES...BUT THE POTENTIAL 
IS INCREASING FOR SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION AND DAMAGE TO 
STRUCTURES IN HISTORICALLY FLOOD PRONE SPOTS.

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