Hurricane Sandy (Update #5)

It looks like Sandy is going to make our acquaintance!

While the dangerous storm is still days away, the probability of the feared left hook has increased and will take place during a big atmospheric fight from the mid-Atlantic to New England and neighboring Canada. The result could be a knockout blow to some areas and not only along the immediate coast.

Most of the computer models now forecast Sandy to initially track N/E away from the coast but then abruptly turn back towards the East Coast and make landfall.

Exactly where this change of direction takes place is critical for the worst impacts, which have the potential to be very disruptive, if not very damaging and in some cases life-threatening.  Presently, our area here in NYC has been designated to be at "High Risk" for a direct landfall early next week.

 

 

Some areas will be hit with damaging winds, power outages, flooding rainfall, battering surf and storm surge. Windswept rain will slow travel in general. Some roads may be blocked by high water and downed trees. Air travel disruptions could radiate outward from the epicenter.

Anywhere near the storm center to 100 miles or more to the northeast of the center during landfall, there is an elevated risk of coastal flooding due to storm surge.

 

The storm will be making landfall around the same date as the full moon. There is the potential for a storm surge of five feet or more when this storm hits.

The strongest winds would also occur near and northeast of the storm center to within a few hours during landfall. Gusts to hurricane force (74 mph) are possible. However, gusts (40 to 60 mph) can occur for a time around much of the storm's circulation out to at least 100 miles and perhaps more.

The details of exactly where landfall occurs will not be apparent perhaps until the left turn actually begins this weekend. However, the zone likely to experience the most damaging and disruptive effects will be narrowed down as more information become available and updated here.

The opportunity to protect property will end quickly in this situation. If you want to take precautionary measures, waiting until Sunday evening to do so may be too late.

Don't put yourself in harm's way during the storm later Sunday into Tuesday.