High Tide Storm Surge Projections

[Astronomical High Tide Height + projected maximum surge height = Total tide height]

Sunday 8:18 P.M. 5.5' High Tide with a 1-2 foot urge = 6.5 - 7.5 foot total tide height

Monday 8:38 A.M. 6.0' High Tide with a 2-4 foot surge = 8.0 - 10.0  foot total tide height

Monday 8:59 P.M. 5.3' High Tide with a 5-10 foot surge = 10.3 - 15.3 foot total tide height

Tueday 9:14 A.M. 6.0' High Tide with a 5-10 foot surge = 11.0 - 16.0 foot total tide height

NOTE:

Although the above projected maximum storm surge heights are frightening, a check with the National Weather Service's Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Probability Model application indicates that there is a less than 10% probability that the storm surge height will exceed 8 feet during this storm, additionally, although the moon will be full it is also approaching apogee (furthest distance from earth) so its gravitational attraction of the ocean will be lessened.  Every little bit helps!

 

GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER

LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND

EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIDAL FLOODING. 

The exact track of Sandy is critical to determine the worst of the storm surge and as such, the above storm surge projections are tentative at this time and are dependent on the strength, speed and exact location of the storm as it approaches us.  I will keep you advised of any changes to the above projections as they become available.

(As a matter or reference, Tropical Storm Irene which hit us here in Broad Channel in August of 2011 at high tide had a storm surge of 4 to 8 feet.)