Nor'Easter Update

This Northeast storm will be windier than the storm 2 weeks ago when the remnants of Tropical Strm Nicole brought high winds and heavy rain to our area. This is because low pressure will be much deeper, and, thus, the pressure difference between that surface low and high pressure in the Midwest will be greater. It's the pressure difference that drives winds.

It should not produce as much heavy rain over a wide area as the storm 2 weeks ago. The ground remains rather moist from parts of northern New England to Pennsylvania, so additional heavy rainfall may trigger some flooding of small creeks and streams in Upstate New York and New England, as well as the typical urban areas mainly from New York City northward.

Here is a general forecast timeline for the upcoming Northeast storm:

Thursday:  Low pressure is expected to gather steam somewhere off the Jersey Shore. Winds will pick up markedly Thursday evening along the Northeast Coast, blowing offshore from North Carolina to south Jersey, but onshore from eastern Long Island northward. The most significant rain from this entire event from New York City, southward through Philly, Baltimore and Washington, DC will likely occur Thursday.

Friday:  Low pressure will deepen quickly and shift into coastal New England. The strongest winds, westerly offshore gales, will howl over southern New England and eastern Long Island. Strong west-northwest winds will also whistle through much of the rest of the interior Northeast, from Upstate New York southward to the Great Smoky Mountains, not to mention parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Downed tree limbs and power outages are possible, especially considering many of these areas near I-95 still have leaves on trees, which act to increase the surface area of the tree exposed to high winds. The steady, heaviest rain will have shifted into northern Maine and eastern Canada, leaving only wrap-around rain primarily in Upstate New York and northern New England.

Saturday:  Low pressure will gradually pull away from New England and weaken. Despite that, strong northwest winds will continue, particularly in New England, through Saturday afternoon, especially over higher elevations. Additional downed limbs and power outages are possible. These nagging northwest winds will also persist along the rest of the I-95 corridor from New York City to Washington, DC. What "leftover showers" remain in far northern New England and Upstate New York Saturday may actually fall as wet snow over the higher peaks of the Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains. For some, this may be the first accumulating snow of the season.