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Monday, September 10, 2018

Tropical Cyclone Florence [Update]


BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 58.9W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 58.9 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.  A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur Wednesday night or Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday
and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern coast of the United
States on Thursday.

Satellite imagery indicates that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid
strengthening is forecast, and Florence is forecast to become a
major hurricane this morning, and is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast, freshwater flooding from a
prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event inland, and
damaging hurricane-force winds. While it is too soon to determine
the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these impacts,
interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into the
mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of Florence,
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week.  These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

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